Company Blog

The S&P 500 has posted 13 consecutive months of single digit 1EPS growth- the last 10 months averaging less than 3%.   This is the first time since 21955 that consecutive single digit growth has exceeded a span of 9 months.  In those three previous periods, EPS averaged... READ MORE

Stop, Look & Listen. When Duke Men’s Head Coach Mike Krzyzewski and his staff communicate to their players during a time-out you can bet the players have received the message . This is because a Krzyzewski-run time-out is a carefully researched and orchestrated affair... READ MORE

Market Risk Alert:  We believe the record spike in correlation between the UST 10Y Treasury and the EURO (relative to the USD) to +75 in August,  is material and signals a potential further retrenchment is risk assets as:   1. The steep and record high correlation listed... READ MORE

Our nod to Shel Silversteins’s iconic children’s poem The Giving Tree is relevant as today’s investors discover that resources have limits.   Our reliance on the 30-year rally in U.S. rates for wealth creation is similar to the boy’s reliance on the tree, as both enjoyed the... READ MORE

It would appear that the demise of the U.S. Treasury Market as a safe haven asset was sorely exaggerated.   Two years ago when financial markets trembled as the United States Treasury was stripped of its AAA, riskless rating by Standard & Poor’s uncertainty reigned as... READ MORE

I. Summary: Near Term, Risk-Off We expect Risk-Assets have seen their highs for the Summer based on:   Quantitative signals which indicate Markets are re-positioning. The correlation between the UST 10Y v. S&P 500 posted its greatest reversal in over 5 years as it moved from... READ MORE

I. Summary: Near Term, Risk-Neutral – as our quantitative signals are mixed despite U.S Equity/ HY Markets positive returns on the week. July will be all about the sustainability of US rate rise.  Forget about higher Fed Fund Futures which can move on a dime…Risk Markets... READ MORE

Summary: Risk-on will certainly continue in Global Spread products as the market digests the low likelihood of a rate rise given the prospects for global GDP growth.  The fuel for this reversal came through all manner of ETF and cash bond flows as banks passed the risk through to... READ MORE

Summary: Near Term, Upward Bias across Spectrum of Risk Assets. Regional breakdown: Overweight US Risk Assets including Large Cap equities, cross-over and HY cash bonds in non-cyclicals. Risk-on positioning still substantiated by over-reaction to QE tapering, flows (lagging... READ MORE